How indictments will affect 2024 election

Given that it has happened a third time, I guess it is finally time to discuss the elephant in the room. Former President Trump was indicted — again — for his role in trying to overturn the 2020 Election results. My intention here is not to make a comment whether I think that he is guilty or not. I try to avoid such statements in these columns and there is a lot of evidence that it would not change anyone’s mind. Instead I think it is valuable to discuss what impact this will have on Trump’s run for the White House in 2024.

The most common question I get from students is whether a person who has been convicted of a crime can serve/run as president. The Constitution is silent on that point. Theoretically Trump could be impeached and removed from office by the United States Congress, but that failed in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 riots and there is little evidence that such an effort would be successful at this time. After the 2024 election a new Congress will be sworn in, but if that election delivered enough Senate votes to impeach Trump, it is logical to assume that he would have lost that election in the first place. Even in Trump’s worst-case scenario there is no restriction from running while on trial, or running while in prison for that matter. In 1920 Eugene Debs was a candidate for president while in prison for vocalizing his opposition to United States involvement in the First World War. He appeared on many state ballots and received five million votes despite being unable to actively campaign since he was incarcerated.

The next question is whether or not these indictments will affect Trump’s likelihood of winning. A new CBS/Yougov poll conducted last week gives us some insight into that question. Fifty-one percent of respondents agreed with the statement that after the 2020 Election Trump planned to stay in office through illegal means. Most Americans also said that the indictments are upholding the rule of law (57%) and are defending democracy (52%). While it is too soon to say that a person who believes Trump illegally tried to overturn the 2020 election will not end up voting for Trump, it is fair to consider them an unlikely Trump voter.

It should be noted that there are massive partisan differences in this poll. Eighty-three percent of Republicans who identified as non-MAGA viewed the indictments as politically motivated (91% of MAGA Republicans view them as an attempt to stop Trump) and 68% of self-identified Republicans in the poll said that Joe Biden was not the legitimate winner of the 2020 Presidential election. We have some data on political independents as well and tend to view the indictments with a “pox on both their houses” mindset. Among independents 38% say that they are most concerned that Trump tried to overturn the presidential election and 41% are most concerned that the indictments appear politically motivated. Until we have further data I would have to say that the indictments are having no effect on Trump in a Republican primary and a small negative effect in a general election against President Biden.

The important thing though is that these trials have not begun and we have no idea what their long term impact will end up being. We are still more than a year away from the 2024 Election and the general public tends to not be paying too much at this point in the race. If Trump is actually on trial during the campaign and there is bombshell testimony on his activities during the campaign, that could have an impact. It is also important to note that unlike 2016 there are a number of Republican candidates, particularly Mike Pence and Chris Christie, who have staked out the position that Trump has disqualified himself. While the data says that position is a loser in a Republican primary, it could still damage Trump in the long term.

General election races are always close due to partisan polarization and if even a small percentage of your party’s base refuses to vote for you, that can be fatal. Trump also faces the difficult challenge of trying to motivate voters to show up in 2024 who he has convinced to be distrustful of elections themselves. If your candidate won and the election was stolen last time, then what is the point of voting this time?

Will these indictments affect the next election? We just do not know. It certainly does not appear that they are going to impact his chances of winning the Republican primary. If he wins that primary, then by definition he has a chance to be elected president in 2024. That also means that we have not heard the last of this story and so everyone needs to be prepared for what might be the most divisive election in the history of the United States next year.

David Searcy holds a master’s degree from Oklahoma State University and a PhD in political science from Southern Illinois University.