Dissecting the situation in Russia

My preference for this columns is to talk about state and local issues. I often default to national politics and polling when something strikes me as interesting. But this week I want to do something different. Let’s talk about Russia.

On the evening of Friday June 23rd Russia experienced what could possibly be described as an attempted insurrection. I use the word possibly because at this point we don’t know for sure what happened. What we do know is that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of a large mercenary army that has been fighting alongside the regular Russian army in Ukraine, accused Vladimir Putin, the leader of Russia, of firing a missile at his men. He then announced that his men would be going to Moscow to overthrow corruption and make changes in the Russian military structure. Putin called the event a mutiny and a “stab in the back” of the Russian people but within 24 hours he had compromised with Prigozhin and agreed to make military reforms while allowing the insurrectionist to live in Belarus, a neighboring country and friend to the Russian government. The mercenaries turned around and halted their advance on Moscow and just like that the situation appears to be over.

I should not have to tell you this but a revolution in Russia would be a big deal. Putin has been in charge of the country for 24 years. Russia is a big important country too with lots of wealth, land, and population.

One thing this shows us is that the war in Ukraine is not going well for the Russians. If you have been following mainstream reports about the conflict you knew that already. While Russia has had some success in conquering some territory given the wealth and armed forces size difference they should frankly be doing much better. People on the losing side of wars are rarely happy with their governments and they often angle for change. This is true no matter where you live. None of the governments of the major European powers that entered into World War 1 were still in power when the war ended. In the democracies they voted in new parties because of their dissatisfaction. In the autocracies they had to get more inventive. Russia does not currently have free and fair elections and so something like this becomes one way to bring about changes in power. I often ask my students what the value of democracy over other forms of government is. The most common answer I get is, “Democracy protects freedoms.” I always say no. Japanese internment, slavery, and Indian Removal are just the tip of the iceberg of civil rights and liberties that the US has violated over our history. What democracy does well is it gives people a mechanism for change that does not involve violence. If you dislike Joe Biden then you’ve got just over a year and then we will have an election and you can vote him out. In Russia they don’t have that option.

If you are wondering what happens next, welcome to the club. Does this lead to demonstrations and uprisings or does everything quiet down and we just forget about this in a few months? Only time will tell. Putin certainly looks weak right now but he did not get his current position without being shrewd. But autocratic regimes can fall quickly and suddenly with some seemingly innocuous starting points. A fire in a movie theater was the event that led to the Iranian revolution. A bread protest led to the Russian revolution in 1917. Sometimes these things fizzle. Russia had a revolution in 1905 that led to minor reforms but no serious changes. This could be a similar kind of thing. Only time is going to tell.

At a minimum though Putin is weakened. Someone just attempted a coup and they seemingly got away with it. Imagine if after January 6th President Biden had agreed to certain Cabinet appointments demanded by the rioters. Putin just did that and being a strongman is kind of his thing. Does this remove some of the fear that Putin has used to maintain power the last two decades? Could we see substantive reforms in Russia? Whatever happens it will be fascinating to watch over the coming months.

David Searcy holds a master’s degree from Oklahoma State University and a PhD in political science from Southern Illinois University.