The College Football Playoff quarterfinals are here, and six of the eight teams are no strangers to the big stage.
Boise State and Arizona State are out to show they belong. They’re top-four seeds as conference champions, and both are double-digit underdogs.
The Broncos got off the plane for their Fiesta Bowl game against Penn State wearing T-shirts saying “Please Count Us Out” in capital letters. Penn State is an 11-point favorite, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen said the shirts are the team’s response to chatter about the Broncos’ worthiness as the No. 3 seed.
“A lot of people didn’t feel like we deserved it,” Madsen said. “But, really, what did we do to not?”
The Broncos are 12-1, their only loss by three points at No. 1 seed Oregon in September, and they beat UNLV twice to earn the Group of Five playoff spot.
Texas is a 12 1/2-point favorite against Arizona State in the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils, like the Broncos, have embraced the underdog role — “just more fuel to the fire,” quarterback Sam Leavitt calls it.
ASU, winner of three games last season and picked last in the Big 12 this year, is 11-2 and coming off a lopsided win over Iowa State in the conference title game.
“As we progressed throughout the year and kept proving people wrong, and now people see the product that we have, I’m a little confused by the score predictions,” Leavitt said. “But I’m super hyped about it. Opportunity is all you can ask for. Now I get an opportunity to go play on the biggest stage and do what we do.”
The picks, with seedings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
No. 6 seed Penn State (minus 11) vs. No. 3 seed Boise State
How Heisman Trophy runner-up Ashton Jeanty fares will determine whether the Broncos make a run at an upset. He’s accounted for 48.3% of his team’s scrimmage touches and 40.9% of its total offense, both nation highs.
His 2,497 rushing yards are fourth-most in a single season, and he’s gone over 200 in six games. That’s impressive against any list of opponents, but it should be noted eight of Boise State’s 13 rank 92nd or lower in rushing defense and another is from the second-tier Championship Subdivision. Granted, Jeanty showed up with 192 yards and three touchdowns against Oregon and 209 and a TD in the Mountain West title game against UNLV.
Penn State has played the 12th-toughest schedule in the country and Boise State the 72nd toughest, according to TeamRankings.com. The Nittany Lions are No. 4 in total defense, Abdul Carter brings speed on the edge, and Drew Allar should put up decent passing numbers if the Broncos load up on the run. . .Pick: Penn State 31-17.
No. 5 seed Texas vs. No. 4 seed Arizona St. (plus 12 1/2)
The Sun Devils have won six in a row, and the question will be whether they’ll cool off with 24 days between games.
Like Boise State, Arizona State leans heavily on its star running back. Cam Skattebo has run for 494 yards and eight touchdowns over his last three games, and he’ll be playing with an “I’ll-show-them” attitude after indicating he was insulted by his fifth-place finish in Heisman voting.
Texas’ defense is stout against the run, and its secondary has been one of the nation’s best. The Longhorns would like to think Cade Klubnik’s 336-yard passing game for Clemson in the first round was a one-off. Leavitt hopes otherwise. . .Pick: Texas 28-23.
No. 8 seed Ohio State vs. No. 1 seed Oregon (plus 2 1/2)
The Big Ten champion Ducks are 13-0 with a one-point win over Ohio State at home in one of the best regular-season games of the year. Their “reward” as the CFP’s top seed is a rematch in the quarterfinals. And they’re underdogs, no less.
Dillon Gabriel and his receivers riddled the Buckeyes with big plays and running back Jordan James went for 115 yards in the October meeting.
The Buckeyes are coming off their best game in a thrashing of Tennessee in the first round. They have a good shot to advance if they get meaningful production from their run game to help Will Howard. . .Pick: Ohio State 30-28.
No. 7 seed Notre Dame (plus 1 1/2) vs. No. 2 seed Georgia
One of the wild cards in this matchup is Gunner Stockton, of course. With Carson Beck injured, Stockton will make his first career start. He performed as well as could be expected in the second half and overtime in the SEC title game against Texas. It will be interesting to see how much offensive coordinator Mike Bobo puts on Stockton’s plate against the Irish.
Notre Dame’s top-10 defense took a hit when leading sack man Rylie Mills injured his knee in the first round against Indiana. He’s out.
The Irish have averaged at least 5.5 yards per rushing attempt in six straight games, which bodes well against a Bulldogs defense that has had trouble keeping good run games under control. . .Pick: Notre Dame 24-21.
AP predictions scorecard
First-round CFP games: Straight-up — 4-0; Against spread — 2-2.
Season: Straight-up — 221-61; Against spread — 141-139.
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