Iowa Caucus full of sound and fury

One of the most famous quotes from William Shakespeare’s play MacBeth is that, “Life’s but a walking shadow; a poor player, that struts and frets his hour upon the stage, and then is heard no more: it is a tale told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.” I thought of that quote as I read the returns from the 2024 Iowa Caucus. The coverage of the results is full of sound and fury but the results signify nothing, unless we collectively decide that the sound matters.

Let’s start with the sound and fury. Former President Trump was the clear victor. Trump won 51% of the vote beating his next closest rivals by a significant margin. This was not a particularly surprising result but it did confirm what polls have been telling us for months: Donald Trump is the clear Republican front-runner. He also won a majority and not a plurality. One of the things I was watching for was whether DeSantis/Haley could combine to defeat Trump, and they could not. Trump also got a couple of days of election coverage that clearly put him in a powerful position because he won the election. He also took an early lead in the delegate count. This is a big deal if the nomination process is close because every delegate can matter when the convention happens.

So why does this not matter? Honestly, it is one election in one state that is in no way representative of the electorate of America at large. If you combine the non-Trump vote into a single category, the non-Trump vote almost won. Republicans in 49 other states have not had a say yet. To make matters worse, the Iowa caucus was held in the midst of a blizzard, so turnout was awful. Only 15% of Iowan Republicans voted, which is awful. There has been a rush to claim that the results of the Iowa Caucus signify this overwhelming support of Donald Trump by Republicans nationwide when they clearly say no such thing. Trump won a majority of 15% of the Republican Party in a single state.

The takeaway from Iowa is that it matters if Republican voters decide that it matters. There are still plenty of scheduled primaries coming but Republicans could view Trump’s nomination as inevitable given the wide margin of his victory in Iowa. Are Haley voters in New Hampshire going to be discouraged and stay home? Political science research has shown that early primary results affect voter confidence in losing candidates. Research also has shown that losing primaries can impact donations as well. People are less likely to donate money to candidates who they perceive as having no chance at winning. Do Republican voters and donors think that Trump is the inevitable victor? If they do, Iowa will matter a lot. If they don’t, then Iowa may end up being a low turnout election that signifies nothing.

Next on the Republican primary calendar is New Hampshire. Most polls have given Trump a lead, but the size of that lead has fluctuated a lot. If he wins another huge majority then his inevitability may become overwhelming. If Haley can get a strong second place? Maybe she is able to successfully portray herself as a viable alternative. I have assumed that Trump was going to win the Republican nomination for a few years now but there is a world where someone like Haley could win. Nobody knows the future yet. If MacBeth had disregarded the prophecies of the three witches then it would only have been a minor event in his life. Instead, MacBeth and his wife put all their faith and actions behind making that prophecy come true. The Iowa Caucus may be the initial sound and fury that culminates with Trump winning the Republican nomination. Alternatively it may signify nothing. As Shakespeare wrote in MacBeth, “If you can look into the seeds of time, And say which grain will grow and which will not, Speak then to me, who neither beg nor fear Your favours nor your hate.”

David Searcy holds a master’s degree from Oklahoma State University and a PhD in political science from Southern Illinois University.