AP writer predicts Ohio State will take home title

Ohio State plays Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff championship game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Monday night. BetMGM Sportsbook listed Ohio State as an 8.5-point favorite on Wednesday, down a point from the opening line.

The eighth-seeded Buckeyes (13-2) have beaten Tennessee, Oregon and Texas on their way to the title game, where they will play for their sixth national championship since the poll era began in 1936. Their most recent title came in 2014.

The seventh-seeded Irish (14-1) have beaten Indiana, Georgia and Penn State and will be playing for their 12th championship, and first since 1988.

Why Ohio State will win

The Buckeyes are more talented and the healthier team right now, and that’s a good place to start.

The offensive lull in the 28-14 semifinal win over Texas probably caused some heartburn for Ohio State fans. Credit the Longhorns, who have one of the best defenses in the country and neutralized star receiver Jeremiah Smith. Ohio State has shown it has plenty of other weapons, though.

The Buckeyes’ top-ranked defense already has won CFP games against three offenses that, on paper, are superior to Notre Dame’s.

Why Notre Dame will win

The Irish have a championship-caliber defense that forces turnovers at one of the highest rates in the nation. If the Irish are going to win, they almost certainly will need a couple takeaways.

Offensively, the Irish must excel on third down. They’ve converted 22 of 44 over three CFP games, including 11 of 17 in the 27-24 semifinal win over Penn State. They also must continue showing progress in the downfield pass game. Jaden Greathouse had his first 100-yard receiving game in the semifinal and Riley Leonard, who has been mediocre on throws longer than 10 yards, had pass plays of 32, 36 and 54 yards.

The pick

OHIO STATE 27-13.

AP predictions scorecard

CFP semifinals — Straight-up — 1-1; Against spread — 1-1.

Season: Straight-up — 226-62; Against spread — 145-141.