Why Prescott’s contract is biggest mistake in lost 2024 season

DALLAS — As the Cowboys’ clown car goes rattling down the two-lane road, Mike McCarthy defending linebacker Micah Parsons from Rex Ryan criticism, radio listeners tuning in to get the latest on what Jerry Jones has to say about the sun, there are eight football games left to be played. It’s a frightening proposition for a team that has not won since Oct. 5.

It’s 3-6 in Dallas and about to get much worse. The Cowboys are 7 1/2-point underdogs at home for Monday night’s game with Houston. The trip to play Washington will generate similar odds. But for all of the things that have gone wrong — and it’s a list too long for this space but one that surely starts with a willingness to shed veteran linemen on both sides of the ball while replacing none of them in free agency, ignoring Derrick Henry’s request to finish his career in Dallas, signing Ezekiel Elliott as if it’s 2018 all over again and then significant injuries at cornerback, defensive line and now quarterback — one mistake stands out. It’s not the one you might think, given than Henry leads the NFL in rushing with Baltimore, but we will return to that. And it’s not the curtains, either.

The Dak Contract.

That’s the No. 1 mistake the Cowboys and Jerry Jones made in 2024. It seemed too big at the time — $231 million in guaranteed money, an average salary of $60 million that sailed past the $55 million figure three other quarterbacks had reached. And now it hangs over this club as the albatross of 2024.

Think of how different it would feel — even with all the other misery in place including DeMarcus Lawrence missing most of the year and Dak having season-ending surgery this week — if that contract had not been executed. The opportunities that might be waiting for the Cowboys in the coming draft — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders, Miami’s Cam Ward, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, whomever it might be — would be viewed in a wholly different light than they are now.

That’s not to say any of those quarterbacks will be instant stars and take over a team the way LSU’s Jayden Daniels has done in Washington. It’s entirely possible no one in this draft will have a career as productive as Dak’s. But again we’re looking at trying to build some sort of winning future here. If the Cowboys could return to that glorious land of quarterbacks on first contracts — the world where Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes first won and lost Super Bowls, where Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts and San Francisco’s Brock Purdy took their clubs to Super Bowls — it changes roster-building overnight.

If the Cowboys were going to prosper with Dak and CeeDee Lamb under new massive contracts, 2024 was their chance to do it. Lamb’s cap hit goes from $8.75 million to $35 million next season. Dak’s goes from (get ready to gulp) about $44.6 million to $89.9 million next year. Dallas can adjust that downward, of course, but again that’s by pushing money around in a manner that makes it less possible to move away from Dak in the next three years.

It tells us something that in the NFL’s endless race to pay quarterbacks a fortune in the hopes that Super Bowl dreams will be realized (it should operate the other way around actually), these are the records of the five teams shelling out the most in average salary:

— Dallas 3-6

— Cincinnati 4-6

— Green Bay 6-3

— Jacksonville 2-8

— Miami 3-6

The Bengals, Packers and Jaguars all pay the same amount ($55 million). So the only quarterback in the top five delivering a winning record is Jordan Love, who has had his own rough moments in Year 2 as a starter for the Packers.

The problem Dallas faces is that Dak returns as a 32-year-old in 2025 whose availability is under question. He will have missed 26 starts in a five-year window. That’s a season and a half, 30% of the games. Beyond that, Dak tore his hamstring on the first Sunday in which he tried to reactivate the running skills he had a few years back. Until the Atlanta game, Dak had 24 yards rushing. He, unfortunately, is the reason that Henry might not have been the answer in Dallas (although he surely would have helped).

In Baltimore, the Ravens have the read option threat of Lamar Jackson. Will he give the ball to Henry or keep it? Doesn’t matter if they only use the play five times a game, it’s a tremendous threat and close to an unstoppable one. That’s what helps Henry to lead the league in rushing again in his ninth season. Had Henry come to Dallas, no defense would have been overly concerned with Dak keeping the ball, and that’s even more true in 2025 and beyond. When a quarterback is a zero as a running threat, like the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers today or the Bucs’ Tom Brady at the end, the passing game better be operating at the highest level and a team better have top quality running backs as a complementary force.

The Cowboys have none of that now, not much of it going forward. Yes, they can still add a top player with their high pick next spring, but it won’t be a quarterback and it won’t change the fact they have made their choices and are up against the salary cap wall already.

The Dak contract changed everything for this franchise. Just not in the way Jerry Jones intended.

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